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darcy

Next 5 games will make or break our start

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With the following next 5 games to come: 

 

Millwall (h)

Boro (a) 

Norwich (h) 

Bolton (a)

Leeds (h) 

 

We pick up 10-12 points here and we will be in the mix, fail to pick up at least 8-9 points and we will start to see a bigger gap. Get 5 points or less and it might start getting away. 

Personally I think we will gain around 8-9 points which personally given the positions of the opposition could be seen as a decent month. 

We need to pick up a solid 3 points Wednesday as we don't want to be going into the game against boro having dropped points to a very poor side. 

 

 

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Millwall you would hope for a win, Boro away is tough, fancy a win against Norwich, draw with Bolton and lose to Leeds who look bloody good at the moment. 

I reckon 7 points 

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8 minutes ago, E R said:

Millwall you would hope for a win, Boro away is tough, fancy a win against Norwich, draw with Bolton and lose to Leeds who look bloody good at the moment. 

I reckon 7 points 

Agree with that although no reason we can't go to Bolton and win as well.

 

Leeds at home is tough but we're looking strong at home and they won't fancy coming here.

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56 minutes ago, nottmred said:

Agree with that although no reason we can't go to Bolton and win as well.

Is that based on the fact that we haven't won away this season Luke? 

I reckon one win, 2 draws, and 2 defeats in those 5 games. With a bit of luck, it could easily be 2,2,1 though. 

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4 hours ago, darcy said:

With the following next 5 games to come: 

 

Millwall (h)

Boro (a) 

Norwich (h) 

Bolton (a)

Leeds (h) 

 

We pick up 10-12 points here and we will be in the mix, fail to pick up at least 8-9 points and we will start to see a bigger gap. Get 5 points or less and it might start getting away. 

Personally I think we will gain around 8-9 points which personally given the positions of the opposition could be seen as a decent month. 

We need to pick up a solid 3 points Wednesday as we don't want to be going into the game against boro having dropped points to a very poor side. 

 

 

We are playing Leeds away aren't we?

Millwall and Norwich I can see us winning, Bolton and Boro draws. Leeds no idea, they'll attack us which could suit us as it will open gaps but I'll go for a draw so 9 points.

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1 hour ago, Dane B said:

Is that based on the fact that we haven't won away this season Luke? 

I reckon one win, 2 draws, and 2 defeats in those 5 games. With a bit of luck, it could easily be 2,2,1 though. 

We've got to win away sometime Dane! 

 

Seriously though, we've started to improve now and were unlucky not to beat Blackburn who are really strong at home. I fancy us at Bolton.

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I think it's Leeds away isn't it?

I don't know if I would call them 'make or break' but if Forest are going to make the top 6 then a statement of intent would be great.

So itd be nice if we could demonstrate that we can string a few wins together, beat the big sides and win away from home. 

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3 minutes ago, Daz said:

I think it's Leeds away isn't it?

I don't know if I would call them 'make or break' but if Forest are going to make the top 6 then a statement of intent would be great.

So itd be nice if we could demonstrate that we can string a few wins together, beat the big sides and win away from home. 

You are in fact correct, Leeds away changes things a bit. 

Personally I feel it will have a bigger impact that you think if we walk away with 5 or less points out of the 15 as you will find the other teams nearer the top will start to pull away, especially with how tight this league is this year it will be hard to see how you can claw back 10-15 points. 

Main thing for now is 100% 3 points on Wednesday. 

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On 10/1/2018 at 3:18 PM, Dane B said:

I reckon one win, 2 draws, and 2 defeats in those 5 games. 

Well, that's the one win out the window.

Now I think 2 draws and 3 defeats. Leeds Boro and Norwich will beat us, and we'll scrape a draw against Bolton.

That's 2 points from 15 I reckon.

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Gonna put some numbers up there for everyone to digest.

Points projection

We have 13 games until boxing day so 39 points available.

In our 11 games so far we've got 16 points. Most probably 16 still from 12 after today. 

In any case 16 from 11 is a points per game ratio of 1.45. Carrying on that same level over the next 13 games would see us get 19 points. Which would put us on 35 points over midway through the season. 

Across the course of an entire season if the ratio was to stay the same we would finish on 67 points which depending on our GD would place us in 11th/12th last season, 9th/10th the season before or 9th the season before that.

Win percentage

Over the course of their Forest managerial careers the following win percentages have been achieved.

David Platt - played 103 won 37 win percentage 35.92% 

Paul Hart - played 134 won 42 win percentage 31.3% 

Joe Kinnear - played 44 won 15 win percentage 34.1% 

Gary Megson - played 59 won 17 win percentage 28.81% 

Colin Calderwood - played 136 won 57 win percentage 41.91% 

Billy Davies - played 126 won 53 win percentage 42.1% 

Steve McClaren - played 13 won 3 win percentage 23.1% 

Steve Cotterill - played 37 won 12 win percentage 32.43% 

Dougie Freedman - played 58 won 19 win percentage 32.76% 

Stuart Pearce - played 32 won 10 win percentage 32.3% 

Billy Davies 2nd time - played 59 won 25 win percentage 42.4% 

Phillippe Montanier - played 30 won 9 win percentage 30% 

Mark Warburton - played 37 won 15 win percentage 40.54% 

Aitor Karanka - played 35 won 10 win percentage 28.6% 

 

Only McClaren has a worse record for any manager managing over 10 games. Few things to take from that...first of all it makes pretty depressing reading and highlights just how messed up we've been for about 15 years now. It also begs the question whether certain managers were hard done to (Warburton) when you think of the hero worship AK seems to get.

 

Transfer spend

I can't be arsed to do every club so will just do the club's above us and a few select others. It also doesn't take into account loan fees or signing on fees to free agents.

WBA transfer activity left with a profit of £13.9m

Middlesbrough transfer activity left with a profit of £26.9m

Derby transfer activity left with a profit of £1.6m

Brentford transfer activity left with a profit of £2.05m

Sheff Utd transfer activity left with a profit of £5.7m

Bristol city transfer activity left with a profit of £18.75m

Leeds transfer activity left with a loss of £4.6m

Norwich transfer activity left with a profit of £26.5m!

Wigan transfer activity left with a loss of £1.5m

 

Forest transfer activity left with a loss of £26.5m (i suspect much higher with agent, loan and signing on fees)

 

I think what I'm trying to say is Karanka out. :lol:

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On 10/6/2018 at 8:19 AM, Savo said:

Gonna put some numbers up there for everyone to digest.

Points projection

We have 13 games until boxing day so 39 points available.

In our 11 games so far we've got 16 points. Most probably 16 still from 12 after today. 

In any case 16 from 11 is a points per game ratio of 1.45. Carrying on that same level over the next 13 games would see us get 19 points. Which would put us on 35 points over midway through the season. 

Across the course of an entire season if the ratio was to stay the same we would finish on 67 points which depending on our GD would place us in 11th/12th last season, 9th/10th the season before or 9th the season before that.

Win percentage

Over the course of their Forest managerial careers the following win percentages have been achieved.

David Platt - played 103 won 37 win percentage 35.92% 

Paul Hart - played 134 won 42 win percentage 31.3% 

Joe Kinnear - played 44 won 15 win percentage 34.1% 

Gary Megson - played 59 won 17 win percentage 28.81% 

Colin Calderwood - played 136 won 57 win percentage 41.91% 

Billy Davies - played 126 won 53 win percentage 42.1% 

Steve McClaren - played 13 won 3 win percentage 23.1% 

Steve Cotterill - played 37 won 12 win percentage 32.43% 

Dougie Freedman - played 58 won 19 win percentage 32.76% 

Stuart Pearce - played 32 won 10 win percentage 32.3% 

Billy Davies 2nd time - played 59 won 25 win percentage 42.4% 

Phillippe Montanier - played 30 won 9 win percentage 30% 

Mark Warburton - played 37 won 15 win percentage 40.54% 

Aitor Karanka - played 35 won 10 win percentage 28.6% 

 

Only McClaren has a worse record for any manager managing over 10 games. Few things to take from that...first of all it makes pretty depressing reading and highlights just how messed up we've been for about 15 years now. It also begs the question whether certain managers were hard done to (Warburton) when you think of the hero worship AK seems to get.

 

Transfer spend

I can't be arsed to do every club so will just do the club's above us and a few select others. It also doesn't take into account loan fees or signing on fees to free agents.

WBA transfer activity left with a profit of £13.9m

Middlesbrough transfer activity left with a profit of £26.9m

Derby transfer activity left with a profit of £1.6m

Brentford transfer activity left with a profit of £2.05m

Sheff Utd transfer activity left with a profit of £5.7m

Bristol city transfer activity left with a profit of £18.75m

Leeds transfer activity left with a loss of £4.6m

Norwich transfer activity left with a profit of £26.5m!

Wigan transfer activity left with a loss of £1.5m

 

Forest transfer activity left with a loss of £26.5m (i suspect much higher with agent, loan and signing on fees)

 

I think what I'm trying to say is Karanka out. :lol:

Wow.. for someone who doesn’t really care anymore you sure spend some time on here moaning and trying to prove yourself right 😂

Not sure why you are trying guess our points performance for the whole season based on not even a third of the season. Why don’t you just wait till the end of the season and judge then.. 

I also don’t buy this crap about Jan - May points and wins.. he signed or loaned 11 players in two days I think and was left in the bargain bucket, we kept Pantilimon, Colback, Watson, Guedioura and Joe Lolley.. out of those only Watson you could say this season has underperformed slightly although I thought he played well at Boro..

The rest were sent back and then AK had the summer to rebuild which he has done. If he had come in from the summer and signed these players no one would be saying AK out. He’s had 12 games with his squad. 

Forget last season for fucks sake, who says we live in the past eh. Didn’t I read on here in the summer glad that seasons gone and all teams start afresh in August 😂

You won’t like this neither will others but there’s more spending coming in January you know that right ? 

 

Edited by Ian

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31 minutes ago, Ian said:

Wow.. for someone who doesn’t really care anymore you sure spend some time on here moaning and trying to prove yourself right 😂

Not sure why you are trying guess our points performance for the whole season based on not even a third of the season. Why don’t you just wait till the end of the season and judge then.. 

I also don’t buy this crap about Jan - May points and wins.. he signed or loaned 11 players in two days I think and was left in the bargain bucket, we kept Pantilimon, Colback, Watson, Guedioura and Joe Lolley.. out of those only Watson you could say this season has underperformed slightly although I thought he played well at Boro..

The rest were sent back and then AK had the summer to rebuild which he has done. If he had come in from the summer and signed these players no one would be saying AK out. He’s had 12 games with his squad. 

Forget last season for fucks sake, who says we live in the past eh. Didn’t I read on here in the summer glad that seasons gone and all teams start afresh in August 😂

You won’t like this neither will others but there’s more spending coming in January you know that right ? 

 

Are you following me around? Make a post that criticises the club and up pops Ian or Rick like Karankas personal lapdog.

Nothing I posted there was false. I've simply posted up transfer and points stats so you interpret them however you want. 

As for your last point. I'm sure we will spend more as in my opinion Karanka knows no other way than to spend spend spend. Coaching doesn't seem to be a concept he's familiar with. He'll probably bring in a few more defensive midfielders just to give Yacob and Tachtsidis competition for a place in the u23s.

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Armchair quarterbacks! I bet some of you lot lose a fortune on the fixed odds, Any team in the 15 could go on a good run and storm this league, we exuberate talent and it's just now that it's starting to materialize. have a little faith.

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33 minutes ago, Savo said:

Are you following me around? Make a post that criticises the club and up pops Ian or Rick like Karankas personal lapdog.

Nothing I posted there was false. I've simply posted up transfer and points stats so you interpret them however you want. 

As for your last point. I'm sure we will spend more as in my opinion Karanka knows no other way than to spend spend spend. Coaching doesn't seem to be a concept he's familiar with. He'll probably bring in a few more defensive midfielders just to give Yacob and Tachtsidis competition for a place in the u23s.

Yes I follow you around.. I’m 37 I go on here a few times a week but I can’t think of anyone who annoys me like you do with your no patience mentality I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again you’d have sacked Clough and Clark if you were in charge when they had a poor run..  if you look I probably post once a week if that so I’m hardly following anyone 😂

I know I seem pro AK but I’m not actually I just don’t see the point of a change after 12 games when I think we are on the verge of doing well. A change will kill our season in my opinion. 

I thought the last run of games in between these absurd international breaks was important for him and to be fair he did well points wise. Not many teams will beat Boro away but also not many teams will not beat Millwall at home.

I have only missed 2 games Reading at home and Blackburn away I really think you should go to a few more games before judging we are 5th Show me anyone who wouldn’t have took that in October.. I know there will be people out there but give to Christmas at least eh 

 

 

 

Edited by Ian

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We drew to Millwall which was two points lost and beat Boro which was three points gained so by my reckoning we’re one point ahead of where I expected us to be regarding this run of matches. Beat Norwich next week and we’ll really be flying. 

My old man is on call so can’t make the match. Previously we’ve struggled to give a spare ticket away but I’ve had three separate people ask about it. A small thing perhaps but just goes to show that people in general are becoming more positive about Forest which can only be a good thing. 

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I haven't heard anyone really moaning about Karanka at a game and in general people seem to be enjoying where we're at and the crowds reflect that.  I feel pretty optimistic that we're heading the right way. 

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17 minutes ago, Charlie Cheswick said:

I haven't heard anyone really moaning about Karanka at a game and in general people seem to be enjoying where we're at and the crowds reflect that.  I feel pretty optimistic that we're heading the right way. 

Me neither.. only on this forum 😂😂😂

I go on a bus with guys who go home and away, they are pretty positive about the season from the conversations we have.. I’ll take the regulars word over it over someone who admits he lost interest.. 

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In terms of the original thread question obviously 4 points already, Norwich at home Bolton and Leeds away, I’d like to think we can do 6 more points which would be like Danny says we would be flying but I think we are more likely to do a win and draw and a defeat. 

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3 hours ago, Charlie Cheswick said:

I haven't heard anyone really moaning about Karanka at a game and in general people seem to be enjoying where we're at and the crowds reflect that.  I feel pretty optimistic that we're heading the right way. 

Everyone at the games has been behind Karanka

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5 hours ago, Savo said:

Are you following me around? Make a post that criticises the club and up pops Ian or Rick like Karankas personal lapdog.

Nothing I posted there was false. I've simply posted up transfer and points stats so you interpret them however you want. 

As for your last point. I'm sure we will spend more as in my opinion Karanka knows no other way than to spend spend spend. Coaching doesn't seem to be a concept he's familiar with. He'll probably bring in a few more defensive midfielders just to give Yacob and Tachtsidis competition for a place in the u23s.

according to you anyone who wants to have a little faith is apparently pro Karanka. I've never said he is the messiah, but i believe he can do a job with us, i agree we could have had a better start, we have dropped points when we shouldn't have such as millwall but we have also could of had a much worse start, we have gained points where we shouldn't. I am strictly under the impression that there is better to come throughout the season and the strength in depth this season will really have a positive effect in congested fixture lists.

For once i want to believe that we can push on and find some consistency because we do have the squad for it. Of course it may all fall apart this might be the best it gets this season but i dont believe that's the case and after every game that passes i think the evidence is that we are starting to head in the right direction. From a club that was intensive care to where we are at the moment i think we have done a pretty good job in a short space of time. I still dont expect us to go up, im still trying to think of play offs as a possible finish. And i hope it becomes more and more realistic as the games go by .

I said at the start of the season that top 10 would be a productive season and it would, i hope we can kick on though and put a decent enough run together where if we do get beat we can respond and get 3 points in our next game. If we can be resilient then im sure top 6 will be in touching distance. 

 

and in my opinion savo your stats about Karanka from January to may are completely irrelevant. New season, new squad, new start and completely different objectives for the club in general and for the playing staff

Edited by Ricknffc

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On 10/1/2018 at 11:44 AM, darcy said:

With the following next 5 games to come: 

 

Millwall (h)

Boro (a) 

Norwich (h) 

Bolton (a)

Leeds (h) 

 

We pick up 10-12 points here and we will be in the mix, fail to pick up at least 8-9 points and we will start to see a bigger gap. Get 5 points or less and it might start getting away. 

Personally I think we will gain around 8-9 points which personally given the positions of the opposition could be seen as a decent month. 

We need to pick up a solid 3 points Wednesday as we don't want to be going into the game against boro having dropped points to a very poor side. 

 

 

Well Darcy, a win against Leeds would be a return of 10 points on those 5 games, which is pretty darn good. A defeat would be 7 points, and not so darn good.

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