Jump to content
the_saurus

The politics thread

Recommended Posts

13 minutes ago, H-Block said:

With regards where Conservative and Labour voters would cast their votes in a second referendum, I appreciate you might not agree with my 75/25 division, but given Thursday's result, whichever credible division you assign would still point toward a remain victory. It seems the mood of the country has changed since June 2016. 

 

Only Three Parties fought the European Elections on a clear Remain or Leave mandate. UKIP, Brexit and Liberal Democrats. The rest of the parties Change UK (a possible 4th), Greens, SNP, Conservatives, Labour, DUP, Alliance, Plaid Cymru fought the elections on a multitude of policies. Also many traditional voters sided with non-mainstream parties as a protest vote or didn't bother.Turnout of EU election was roughly 35%, compared to Vote to Leave/ Remain 71.8%.. So it's impossible to predict whether a second referendum would have a clear majority for either side as latest surveys suggest a close split 51/49 and there is a margin of error. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This argument is a bit daft on two levels.  One, there was a referendum and that was that.

Two, hardly any fucker voted this time around, so the results are neither here nor there when it comes to reflecting on anything.

Three, if our politicians can't sort anything out and it comes to another referendum, anything could happen in terms of the result.  In the aftermath of any result, you can bet your arse everyone will still be arguing about it forevermore.  Either way, predicting where the county stands on the EU and our involvement in it on the back of the EU elections is pointless.

Four, I'm sick of it. Everyone seems to know what's best yet nobody really knows anything.    

 

  • Upvote 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hard to disagree with that logic Charlie. Well put. 

This will all be over one day, either we end up leaving or remaining, I can't wait 🤨

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 hours ago, Charlie Cheswick said:

Either way, predicting where the county stands on the EU and our involvement in it on the back of the EU elections is pointless.

 

With the exception of the Conservatives and Labour, the main players all campaigned on the basis of either being "Leave" parties or "Remain" parties. There were virtually no other issues debated during the campaign. You will not get a clearer barometer of where the country stands on wanting to leave or remain.

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 hours ago, nemesiz said:

Only Three Parties fought the European Elections on a clear Remain or Leave mandate. UKIP, Brexit and Liberal Democrats. The rest of the parties Change UK (a possible 4th), Greens, SNP, Conservatives, Labour, DUP, Alliance, Plaid Cymru fought the elections on a multitude of policies. Also many traditional voters sided with non-mainstream parties as a protest vote or didn't bother.Turnout of EU election was roughly 35%, compared to Vote to Leave/ Remain 71.8%.. So it's impossible to predict whether a second referendum would have a clear majority for either side as latest surveys suggest a close split 51/49 and there is a margin of error. 

 

Change, Greens, SNP and Plaid campaigned overwhelmingly as "Remain" parties during this election. The Greens even had a spokesperson on tv conceding that it was their position as a "Remain" party as opposed to their environmental policies that saw them do so well this time around.

As for turnout, the pattern of voting would likely be repeated (within a couple of percentage points) by the missing x% of voters. Are you seriously suggesting 36% of the electorate are firm leavers but couldn't be bothered to show their colours by coming out on Thursday to support the Brexit Party?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 hours ago, Daz said:

My initial comment was perhaps a little simplistic but Ashcroft's polling still suggests a leave majority (https://lordashcroftpolls.com/2019/05/my-euro-election-post-vote-poll-most-tory-switchers-say-they-will-stay-with-their-new-party/#more-15953) and of course the story of the day is the Brexit Party winning. Enormous implications when you consider we use FPTP

 

I'm sorry, but I think you're over simplifying the issue. And I sincerely hope you're not suggesting that the single issue Brexit Party would have any meaningful electoral success at a general election under first past the post.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 hours ago, H-Block said:

 

Change, Greens, SNP and Plaid campaigned overwhelmingly as "Remain" parties during this election. The Greens even had a spokesperson on tv conceding that it was their position as a "Remain" party as opposed to their environmental policies that saw them do so well this time around.

As for turnout, the pattern of voting would likely be repeated (within a couple of percentage points) by the missing x% of voters. Are you seriously suggesting 36% of the electorate are firm leavers but couldn't be bothered to show their colours by coming out on Thursday to support the Brexit Party?

Yep.

What's the point of making the walk to the polling station if a) you've already voted to leave the EU, so why would you vote to elect a MEP to an organisation that you want out of? and b) You are convinced we are leaving the Union, so any MEP you vote for will soon be out of a job anyway.

It's pointless trying to read into the outcome of the EU elections. Less than 50% of the turnout of the referendum.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

H Block you seem to be really underestimating how pissed off people are that they voted for something and didn’t get it. I know many people who didn’t bother voting after their last vote wasn’t listened to. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
21 hours ago, nemesiz said:

The unwritten rule if the Prime Minister and Party leader is given a vote of no confidence, the replacement must call an election as soon as possible to validate their claim. Of course this didn't happen with Gordon Brown, but this was an exception. Concerning the Tory leadership challenge the frontrunner doesn't normally win, so be prepared for Andrea Leadsom or Esther McVey 🤣

The tradition is only that the PM needs to command a majority in the Commons, which Brown did. Although that pre-dates the stupid Fixed Terms Parliaments Act. It is arguable that whoever wins the Tory vote will not command the confidence of the Commons, lose a vote of no confidence, Corbyn will get the chance to form a government, fail and then it's another fucking election.

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm a firm remainer (business relies on it and we're now suffering due to pre-emptive measures by some of our clients to move to mainland Europe) but part of me would love to see Aaron Banks and his cronies succeed in privatising the NHS only to laugh in the face of my leaving voting Father in Law who relies on it and doesn't have a pot to piss in.

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 hours ago, H-Block said:

Does anybody know what happened to the Trump thread?

Trump thread never existed. It was fake news.

  • Haha 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 6/5/2019 at 10:25 PM, H-Block said:

Does anybody know what happened to the Trump thread?

Was thinking the same. Strange that it’s been deleted...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Disappointed to see Labour win in Peterborough. Seems like the rise of Ferage has been exaggerated.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
30 minutes ago, Mr Smith said:

Disappointed to see Labour win in Peterborough. Seems like the rise of Ferage has been exaggerated.

Labour beat them by 683 votes - if anything it shows that even in a multicultural city like Peterborough that people are fed up with the main 2 parties and their inability to deliver what was voted for 

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-politics-48532869

If the people who voted UKIP had voted Brexit party that is a win of about 200 votes

Edited by E R

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, E R said:

Labour beat them by 683 votes - if anything it shows that even in a multicultural city like Peterborough that people are fed up with the main 2 parties and their inability to deliver what was voted for 

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-politics-48532869

If the people who voted UKIP had voted Brexit party that is a win of about 200 votes

I don't think you can claim a moral win for the Brexit Party. If all the Labour voters went for the Greens then it would have been a comfortable win for the Greens! It would have been nice to see anybody other than the Tories or Labour win, just to show those fuckers it is the electorate in chagre, but when the electorate keeps voting in the same shit, nothing is going to change.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Mr Smith said:

I don't think you can claim a moral win for the Brexit Party. If all the Labour voters went for the Greens then it would have been a comfortable win for the Greens! It would have been nice to see anybody other than the Tories or Labour win, just to show those fuckers it is the electorate in chagre, but when the electorate keeps voting in the same shit, nothing is going to change.

This gives an interesting perspective on the Farage problem. North’s old man was an MEP many years ago who shared an office with Farage. The problem seems to be Farage doesn’t think much further than himself and nobbles anyone with serious ideas.

https://peterjnorth.blogspot.com/2019/06/peterborough-failure-to-launch.html

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, Mr Smith said:

Disappointed to see Labour win in Peterborough. Seems like the rise of Ferage has been exaggerated.

Not exaggerated, rather which voters are more loyal to their traditional political views and original voting stance. Both Conservatives and Labour haemorrhaged votes to the Brexit and stout Remain parties as a protest vote. In truth I expected Labour to hold the seat, even with the disillusionment over their lying ex-MP, Jeremy Corbyn and anti-Semitism allegations, as the protest vote was split between the minor and new parties. Many voters didn't turn up ( turnout down by 19%) , feeling frustrated that their voice wasn't being heard by the political establishment. Also mid-way through a Parliament, the ruling party loses some swing voters due to their unpopular decision making.

I honestly believe that if a general election is held before this country leaves the EU what we will see is a similar result to when Tony Blair was elected in May 1997 with a landslide victory for Labour. Many Labour, Conservative, and swing voters will vote for the Brexit and UKIP Parties but in marginal seats this will decimate the ruling party more as the electorate will apportion more blame for failure to leave the EU. What you're see is a similar run off to the 2015 General Election with Brexit party getting up to a fifth of the vote, but with the First Past the Post system translating to only one or two seats. Liberal Democrats would also do well beating their 2005 results with 62 MP's, as their votes share holds up.(Of course this depends on their choice of a new leader).  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think the Tories would win an election easily.  If Labour were serious contenders they would be miles ahead in the polls considering the state the Tories are in.  They'll get a new leader soon enough, a straight choice between eleven twats, so whoever wins will be a twat, everyone will forget they've elected another complete twat for a year or two and they'll win again, then everyone will say, hang on, the PM is a complete twat again shortly after.  

I don't know what's worse, the twats in charge or us lot for enabling them.  

Edited by Charlie Cheswick
  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Eight of the 11 Tory candidates have admitted to drug use... the other three are liars. 

Nice to see Boris Johnson show the broad appeal he has to the country by promising to lower higher rate taxes. He might appeal to the 120k people who are anointing the next Prime Minister, but beyond the zealots he is completely unelectable and makes Corbyn look like a reasonable choice for PM.

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 6/7/2019 at 6:59 AM, nottmred said:

Was thinking the same. Strange that it’s been deleted...

Admins?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 6/15/2019 at 5:43 AM, E R said:

It seems to have taken the media a little while to catch up with this. There were some claims shortly afterwards. Don’t know if they’re true or not, but there was a claim that 10000 votes cast and more of them were postal ballot than in person which itself was considered to be iffy.

its like a banana republic in Britain, these days.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Upcoming Events

    No upcoming events found
  • Live championship table

  • Championship Live Scores

    Fctables
×

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.